Meeting 21 January 2014

Issues discussed:

  1. Puzzle about whether UAF in CGLM model makes the weight of evidence (WoE) more or less incriminating;
  2. Are the difference with and w/o UAF always so negligible?
  3. MLE is problematic, do a Bayesian approach. We have estimates of some parameters from experimental data (see Puch_solis; Buckleton for example) which could be used as informative priors. Use uniform prior on $\phi$ and integrate out?
  4. Extend to IBD and subpopulation: the challenge is the interaction between the cross-marker latent variables and the maximisation. Can G&M sec 3.4.2 ideas be used here?
  5. Extend to allow for paternity testing or other specific identity hypotheses.
  6. Likelihood always increases with increase in number of unknown contributors. (Nested model and using MLE) How to set a bound. Idea (Peter) try get a bound for infinite number of contributors.
  7. Multivariate UAF model.
  8. Considering the LR as random and considering LR disribution issues (as in Corradi, Ricciardi)
  9. In past we discussed issues of dependent markers e.g. Y haplotype markers

In progress/done

  1. P Extend DNAmixtureUAF to treat more than two individuals $I >2$. Done but there are bugs
  2. J Example 5 Puch-Solis with $\theta=0.02$ so $M=(1-\theta)/\theta=49$; Done
  3. J Check large M we converge to vanilla results. Results look weird - check!

To Do List:

  1. P & J Recheck Beta-Binomial algebra.
  2. J Check Hugin net for two actor examples.
  3. J Try UAF for two traces. Find suitable example with 2 actors at least one in common in both traces. Check program gives correct result when actors in two traces are different (independence case so likelihoods multiply).
  4. P Try CLM model with MLE, to try to distinguish whether reduction in sensitivity to UAF is due to model or method of inference
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